bu5565 empirical methods in finance

analysis the data and write a report.

This Eviews file contains 269 monthly observations from 01/1989 to 05/2011 on the following variable:

Consumption:Consumer expenditure consumption in the US


1.Construct a univariate time-series model using the consumption variable.Recall that

there are three stages involved in this process:Identification,estimation and diagnostic

test.You should cover all these aspects until you reach your final model.

2.Forecast and test the forecasting accuracy of your model.Use as a forecasting sample

for the period between 2009M01 to 2011M05.What can you conclude about this?


Write a report on the models you have estimated.This should contain:


Discussion on the nature of the data

Econometric methodology used

How you chose your final specifications

Conclusions(should include also any limitations and weaknesses you perceive with the

empirical work undertaken)

The report should be written in the style of an empirical journal article and should not contain

more than 1,500 words.Brooks,Chapter 13(3rd Edition)or Chapter 15(4th Edition)provides

some advice on this.You should not include Eviews output directly within the text.You should

report results of the appropriate statistical tests and where appropriate estimation results in the

style used in the empirical journal articles.

Overall,you need to explain in detail what is being done and discuss the results appropriately.

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